Our Economy has been in a "Credit Bubble"

Credit Bubble Has Helped Create the Overleveraged American Consumer

The unappreciated dilemma is that the typical American has already over-consumed beyond any reasonable standard. Not only has demand been boosted by strong wealth effects, the boom has been much the result of stretching credit use to an extreme. That means household debt is now at an all-time record high, having increased from 68% of personal disposable income to 95% over the last fifteen years. And with confidence that prosperity is here to stay, the US savings rate stands at a record low level. It is little wonder our domestic economy has been so strong; 'It's been a great party', fueled by an enormous credit binge.

Just look around. Traditionally the bulk of mortgage loans required a 20% down-payment. Now, a whole industry has mushroomed that makes its living lending almost exclusively to home buyers offering little, if any, down-payment and poor credit is not an issue. In fact, today 40% of borrowers require some type of mortgage insurance to qualify for a loan. But poor credit and lack of a down payment are not a problem for today's creative financial infrastructure that through the alchemy of modern finance, pools these mortgages together and sells them to buyers hungry for yield. Or that is how it has worked until quite recently. Now, with de-leveraging and risk aversion, the market has disappeared for risky mortgage securities.

The Iraq Catch 22

...there is unrest because we wont leave, so we must fight to restore security, witch causes more unrest because we are still there, so we must fight harder to restore security, witch ...

Doesn't it sound perfect....

If your goal is to stay in the region forever, and keep on milking Defense Industry pork forever ?

Daily Kos || IRAN THREATENS PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE

Touche, damn it

From NYT:

DOHA (AFP) - Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani warned that Iran might launch a preemptive strike against US forces in the region to prevent an attack on its nuclear facilities.

"We will not sit (with arms folded) to wait for what others will do to us. Some military commanders in Iran are convinced that preventive operations which the Americans talk about are not their monopoly," Shamkhani told Al-Jazeera TV when asked if Iran would respond to an American attack on its nuclear facilities.

"America is not the only one present in the region. We are also present, from Khost to Kandahar in Afghanistan; we are present in the Gulf and we can be present in Iraq..."

A Family in Baghdad

What is the worth of the citizen here??? An Iraqi??

To live in a place where there is no state, no law, no protection… GOD the MIGHTY is the only safety factor, for those who believe, and depend on him… I have been living my days wagering upon this fact only. Not on a government, nor an army, nor police, they were all in a jam, and each one wants to protect himself some how… even the occupation force…is only thinking of protecting itself, and how to cut down the daily losses.

When I opened the second part of the gate, a red car drove near, then stopped beside my car, I looked coolly to them, thinking them visitors to the neighbors, but I noticed that they got out quickly, facing me, carrying rifles and guns aimed at me....

Every thing froze in that moment…I saw my self dead, for sure.
Two of them moved towards me, signaling me to keep quiet, then one of them got into the car, while the other kept pointing his gun at me, I then realized that they came [for my] car

...I hoped for a miracle to happen, to stop them, but they went by, quickly, and my heart tore up… I run to the street, and stopped the first passing car, told him: Please help me, they took my car…I want to follow them or notify the Police…

We got to the nearest Iraqi Army Post, and notified them about the theft, he said he was sorry, but that was not among his duties.. A man was praying in the room…he finished his prayers and prayed goodness to me... The other man said: Do not cry, here…these are my car keys, use it and return it whenever you wish…
I thanked him, and kept crying…. raving to myself

I felt I shall die of sorrow, feeling defeated in front of a dirty enemy you can not confront… I felt that even the Police were helpless, so the possibility of getting it back is very slim….

One of the reasons for my incident is that the streets are almost devoid of Police cars these days, for most of them went to the tension areas, where there are clashes with Al-Mahdi Army and that presented the golden opportunity for thieves and gangs.

I am seriously thinking of leaving this house, and moving to a district closer to my work, and safer� the thieves now had information about my name, career, and work address, perhaps the next step would be to kidnap me or one of my sons... nearby is an area full of gangs and thieves, since the days of Saddam Hussein.

Now the conditions are worst, and no one can control them. So moving away from the area is the safest solution�

What is the meaning of life without security? How could a person work, give and create, while living in a constant state of panic? In the Institute, I sit in class, listening to the teacher, and thinking warily: will a shell fall down now, break the windows, smash the walls, kill and wound us?"

I opened up the Internet to read my e-mails…I found some 70 new letters…some were reports about Bush, Kerry, and the elections battle, and how it moves on…
I smiled and shook my head…each is living in his far away world, away from the other…diving into different details…

What brought them here?

Can they believe that they have ruined our lives, present, and future for uncountable years to come? Is there still among them a dreamer who thinks he loves the Iraqis, and he is here to help them??
We have an old saying here, one which we use in time of disasters bound with love… (and there is the love that kills……)

Baghdad Burning

Great blog by someone who lives in Baghdad!

Clashes and Churches...
300 dead in a matter of days in Najaf and Al Sadir City. Of course, they are all being called ‘insurgents’. The woman on tv wrapped in the abaya, lying sprawled in the middle of the street must have been one of them too. Several explosions rocked Baghdad today- some government employees were told not to go to work tomorrow.

So is this a part of the reconstruction effort promised to the Shi’a in the south of the country? Najaf is considered the holiest city in Iraq. It is visited by Shi’a from all over the world, and yet, during the last two days, it has seen a rain of bombs and shells from none other than the ‘saviors’ of the oppressed Shi’a- the Americans. So is this the ‘Sunni Triangle’ too? It’s déjà vu- corpses in the streets, people mourning their dead and dying and buildings up in flames. The images flash by on the television screen and it’s Falluja all over again. Twenty years from now who will be blamed for the mass graves being dug today?

We’re waiting again for some sort of condemnation. I, personally, never had faith in the American selected proxy government currently pretending to be in power- but for some reason, I keep thinking that any day now- any moment- one of the Puppets, Allawi for example, will make an appearance on television and condemn all the killing. One of them will get in front of a camera and announce his resignation or at the very least, his utter disgust, at the bombing, the burning and the killing of hundreds of Iraqis and call for an end to it… it’s a foolish hope, I know.

So where is the interim constitution when you need it? The sanctity of private residences is still being violated... people are still being unlawfully arrested... cities are being bombed. Then again, there really is nothing in the constitution that says the American millitary *can't* actually bomb and burn.

Soldier Sues U.S. Military Over Extended Service

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A California Army National Guard sergeant filed a lawsuit on Tuesday asserting that the government can not prevent reservists from leaving the military when their enlistment periods end.

The suit against Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other military officials names the plaintiff only as John Doe. It says he served with distinction in the Marine Corps and Army for nine years on active duty and three years as a reservist.

'This lawsuit seeks to stop the forced retention of men and women who have fulfilled their service obligations,' said attorney Michael Sorgen. 'When their period of enlistment ends, they should be entitled to return to their families.

Yahoo! News - Explorers Find Ancient City in Remote Peru Jungle

LIMA, Peru (Reuters) - An ancient walled city complex inhabited some 1,300 years ago by a culture later conquered by the Incas has been discovered deep in Peru's Amazon jungle, explorers said on Tuesday.

U.S. and Peruvian explorers uncovered the city, which may have been home to up to 10,000 people, after a month trekking in Peru's northern rain forest and following up on years of investigation about a possible lost metropolis in the region.

The stone city, made up of five citadels at 9,186 feet above sea level, stretches over around 39 square miles and contains walls covered in carvings and figure paintings, exploration leader Sean Savoy told Reuters.

'It is a tremendous city ... containing areas with stone etchings and 10-meter (33-foot) high walls,' said Savoy, who had to hack through trees and thick foliage to finally reach the site on Aug. 15.

Covered in matted tree branches and interspersed with lakes and waterfalls, the settlement sites also contain well-preserved graveyards with mummies with teeth 'in almost perfect condition,' Savoy said.

Replete with stone agricultural terraces and water canals, the city complex is thought to have been home to the little-known Chachapoyas culture.

According to early accounts by Spanish conquistadors who arrived in Peru in the early 1500s, the Chachapoyas were a fair-skinned warrior tribe famous for their tall stature. Today they are known for the giant burial coffins sculpted into human figures found in the northern jungle region.

Savoy said his team also found an Inca settlement within the city complex that could prove theories the Chachapoyas were conquered by the Incas, who ruled an area stretching from Ecuador to northern Chile between 1300 and 1500.

Savoy, a Peruvian-American, accompanied on the expedition by his U.S. father, Gene Savoy, named the site Gran Saposoa after the nearby village Saposoa and his team has already mapped the area with preliminary drawings.

The discovery is the third notable ruin Gene Savoy has helped uncover in Peru. In 1964, Savoy found the site of the Incas' last refuge in the Cuzco region of southern Peru. A year later he took part in the discovery of the sacred city of Gran Pajaten in northern Peru.

American Hiram Bingham made Peru's most famous archeological discovery -- the fabled Inca ruins of Machu Picchu near Cuzco -- in 1911. Machu Picchu today attracts almost half a million tourists every year and is South America's best known archeological site."

OSHA Made More Business-Friendly

Bush Forces a Shift In Regulatory Thrust

Tuberculosis had sneaked up again, reappearing with alarming frequency across the United States. The government began writing rules to protect 5 million people whose jobs put them in special danger. Hospitals and homeless shelters, prisons and drug treatment centers -- all would be required to test their employees for TB, hand out breathing masks and quarantine those with the disease. These steps, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration predicted, could prevent 25,000 infections a year and 135 deaths.

By the time President Bush moved into the White House, the tuberculosis rules, first envisioned in 1993, were nearly complete. But the new administration did nothing on the issue for the next three years.

Assistant Secretary of Labor John L. Henshaw said "writing another standard" is not the answer to occupational safety. (Gerald Martineau -- The Washington Post)

Then, on the last day of 2003, in an action so obscure it was not mentioned in any major newspaper in the country, the administration canceled the rules. Voluntary measures, federal officials said, were effective enough to make regulation unnecessary.

The demise of the decade-old plan of defense against tuberculosis reflects the way OSHA has altered its regulatory mission to embrace a more business-friendly posture. In the past 3 1/2 years, OSHA, the branch of the Labor Department in charge of workers' well-being, has eliminated nearly five times as many pending standards as it has completed. It has not started any major new health or safety rules, setting Bush apart from the previous three presidents, including Ronald Reagan